The advertised APR was higher than what liquidity providers kept
Pool lists show yesterday's fees, annualised. What a provider keeps is fees minus the loss from prices moving apart (impermanent loss) and the cost of getting in and out.
We followed 16 of the largest NEAR pools on Rhea and 18 Burrow lending markets for 90 days, block by block, and compared the yield a pool list advertises with what people actually kept.
Pool lists show yesterday's fees, annualised. What a provider keeps is fees minus the loss from prices moving apart (impermanent loss) and the cost of getting in and out.
Fees did not cover impermanent loss. With a $500 position, 14 of 16 were negative after costs. That is why the autopilot ranks by the result after costs, not by APR.
A big pool is not a better pool: size barely predicts what providers kept (rank correlation 0.33, where 1 would be a perfect match). Much of that capital is parked, not earning.
Our weakest point, stated plainly: lending rates are far more honest than pool APRs. In the other 7 markets the rate moved enough that the number shown today was not what accrued.
Medians, per year. “Earned in fees” is what a pool list shows; “after price moves” subtracts impermanent loss; “after costs” also subtracts getting in and out with $5,000.
| Pools | Earned in fees | After price moves | After costs | Lost money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Still in the top 15 at the end (15) | 0.7% | -2.2% | -3.8% | 13 of 15 |
| In the top 15 at the start only (shrank) (1) | 20.4% | -27.0% | -28.1% | 1 of 1 |
| WNEAR / stablecoin (4) | 11.0% | -25.5% | -26.7% | 4 of 4 |
| WNEAR / volatile token (12) | 0.3% | -0.9% | -2.0% | 10 of 12 |
Each claim had a rule, fixed in advance, that would prove it wrong. Every number is recomputed from raw mainnet data committed with the code (one block per day). Verdict: SUPPORTED on all three counts. To avoid looking only at the survivors, the sample also includes the pools that were among the largest at the start but not at the end (1).
Full method, every pool and the raw data →